GBP Try to Gain Momentum on Uncertain Polls

GBP is the only gainer vs USD since the beginning of the week as opinion polls suggest the Conservatives could win with as much as a 48-pt majority in next week's elections.

While most GBP bulls appear to be anticipating a Tories majority victory, a Tories win without majority (hung parliament) would depend on the make-up of the possible coalition. An unlikely Labour-Conservatives coalition would be GBP-negative, while a Tories-LibDem coalition is seen the preferred coalition scenario for GBP. A Labour-LibDem outcome would be the worst of these ouctomes.

From technical point of view, GBP/USD still struggle around upper border of the flag on a daily chart. The consolidation from 1.3012 is still in progress and could extend further. The move is bullish and momentum remains to the upside until the pound is trading above 50-day and 100-day SMAs.

On the upside, break of 1.3012 will resume the whole rally from 1.1958 to 1.3180 firstly. The medium-term bullish target stays at 1.33.

For now, the downside pressure should be contained by 1.2769 support. However, break of 1.2769 will bring deeper fall back to the key support area 1.2582/00.

What do you think?