USDJPY Buying opportunity, breakout trade.

2019-11-19 05:09:34

The currency pair, USDJPY is in an uptrend which has the potential to continue. The last time the price was at 108.500 it stalled out and rotated a lot, then failed. It was coming from an original down-trending market. This time it is breaking above and we could see a continued move in the USD strengths. This could be due to monetary policy...
The fundamental reasoning for the USD strengthing short term is that the Fed has ceased to cut rates (hawkish). Long term, the USD has the potential to fall.

Based on pure technicals on a daily chart, USD JPY is due for a move higher, however, we want to see a pop that is really extended above the upcoming recent high at 109.500. The price could start its rally from the current price at 108.500. There are 2 other scenarios.

1. A rotation back down to the impulse move that brought the new high, 107.940, with a lot of green wicks forming there for the move higher (rotations).
2. A break of the top at 109.500 and through the wicks that have formed there and rotation back down to either 109.2500 or the impulse that brought it up which can be at 108.35.

The top at 109.45 is a little concerning because of the extended wicks on the candles, meaning the bears have control, if price breaks through on a long candle, the bears are trapped.

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