Could USD/CHF break the consolidation area?

Following its bounce off 100-day SMA, USD/CHF rises above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August-October rally. Intraday trading bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first as sideway trading from 1.0027 continues in the formed triangle.

Considering the pair’s recent recovery from near-term strong support, prices could retest 0.9950/60 resistance area where is located 78.6% Fibonacci level and the resistance trend line of the formed triangle. However, 200-day Simple Moving Average of 0.9952 may be should continue to act as strong upside barrier. On the upside, a clear break of 0.9978 will target 1.0027 first.

Opposite scenario is consolidation from 1.0027 might extend further through 0.9851. In that case, deeper fall could be seen back towards 0.9660 (the low since 13th August).

Until we see a convincing break from the triangle, our preferred strategy remains for long positions at the bottom of the range and shorts at the top.