AUD/USD short posiotion

Here is a nice bat pattern that formed on the Aussie dollar pair. this is one opportunity not to be missed.
there are three reasons that could lead to this beint a winning trade and only one reason it could be a loser.
WINNERS
1. the obvious reason that a bearish pattern has formed
2. if you look at the long term trend of the market you will see that the market has been in downtrend for a while now and as a trader you must have heard that never trade against a trend.
3. the rsi on a few time frames also suggest a consequent downward move (weak reason to initiate trade)
LOSER
1. after the market hit its lowest point which has been on one or two times, it printed a one two three move and we know what those mean = impulse.
this is only my idea of the pair, please feel free to leave a comment and let me know what is your point of view.

happy trading