Short #BRICS currencies movement for the week – 8 November 2019

Not a bad week for the South African Rand, recovering some of its losses made last week (-2.6% against USD). We first saw Moody’s not downgrading South Africa (after close last Friday) then we’d like to think that the Springbok’s victorious Rugby World Cup campaign, also had something to do with the over 1% improvement of the ZAR. This all in an environment where the USD enjoyed a strong run (up 1.3% against the EURO).

#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:

Brazil -4.2%
Russia -0.5%
India -0.9%
China +0.6%
South Africa +1.1%

Euro/USD -1.3%

Technically, the Rand stayed below a very downward sloping 50-day moving average, bouncing off the resistance numerous times this week. This level (R14.87) remain a strong resistance level for this coming week, with a break and close above the 50-day moving average, most probably placing us back at the R15 levels. Next resistance level is R15.17.

As mentioned, the 50-day moving average is still sloping downward, which indicate that the short-term trend is still very much in the favour of the Rand. Should the Rand continue its positive performance this coming week, could see it test the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (support) at R14.65 with a break below this level, seeking support at the 200-day moving average at R14.50. Should we break below this level, could see us targeting the primary support at R13.85 again.

My call for this coming week – we could see a continuation of the recent movement in the ZAR (trend is our friend), with the USD maybe taking a bit of a breather.