EURUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Mar20,Wk2

I'm planning for a counter-trend trade on EURUSD, the motivation behind this is because, after a strong appreciation, I'm expecting some form of retracement and a bullish movement continuation will be stronger and more persistence when the market retraces back to the buy zone before further appreciation.

Two approaches to the market I'm waiting for.
First, a double top, which yields the best Reward is to Risk ratio but have a Higher Risk of stop out.
Second, a break and close below the support of 1.1212 and retrace back to the resistance level which is near to the support level of the double top and short the market after candle confirmation.

The second approach is much safer, but it does not give a great Reward is to Risk.

Let's see which comes first.