AUD/USD technical outlook...

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Demand at 0.6358/0.6839 remains in the fight, with price attempting to bottom within its lower boundary. An eventual break of the said demand zone has another layer of demand close by at 0.6094/0.5866, while a recovery could eventually lead to trendline support-turned resistance (0.4776) making an appearance, followed by supply at 0.8303/0.8082.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered outlook from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.6585/1.6625 remains in the spotlight, despite having its upper edge challenged a number of times this week.

0.6680ish offers resistance (red oval), while proven supply can also be seen at 0.6778/0.6731, aligning with trendline resistance (0.7393).

The RSI recently exited oversold territory, hovering south of 50.00.

H4 timeframe:

Supply at 0.6655/0.6629 continues to offer a ceiling on the H4 timeframe. On top of this, price penetrated the lower boundary of an ascending channel (0.6434), reaching lows at 0.6583 Thursday.

Thursday’s report stated:

A break of channel support is required here to ignite conviction to the downside, while gravitating higher could lead to supply at 0.6695/0.6677 making an entrance.

With the above in mind, we appear to be heading for a retest of the current supply. Holding off here has demand at 0.6511/0.6542 to target.

H1 timeframe:

Thursday snapped a three-day winning streak amid global risk aversion, drilling through the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern (0.6577/0.6614), and dipping a toe in waters south of 0.66, before mildly paring losses into the close.

With 0.66 holding, 0.6650 is a resistance worthy of note, bolstered by a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. at 0.6648. The RSI is seen gathering traction above 50.00, while the 100-period SMA drifts north, currently circulating around 0.6578.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly demand at 0.6358/0.6839 is still in play, holding on by a thread. Daily price suggests additional buying, north of supply at 1.6585/1.6625.

H4 price holds at supply, with price penetrating the lower boundary of a nearby channel support.

Limited resistance, aside from the possibility of yesterday’s high at 0.6636 holding, exists on the H1 until reaching resistance at 0.6650.

On account of the above, pressure from monthly demand, and the recent break of daily supply, could see 0.6650 enter play today on H1, taking the H4 candles toward the upper limit of its current supply.