ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.02.11

On the NZ side a superb round of employment data for Q419 which is overshooting market expectations clashing with global USD strengthening via commodity currency softening.

For the 2020 diagram the outlook is crystal clear although the immediate picture is slightly more blurred with Chinese growth concerns spilling over to weigh on NZD.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/vw03AEHb-ridethepig-NZD-2020-Macro-Map/

The RBNZ are on hold this week and will remain the case unless the outlook globally materially softens. China easing will allow risk assets to bounce, I don't see much more downside for NZDUSD from here and am actively looking to add positions to all macro portfolios this week. A hawkish RBNZ via unemployment and (no mention of coronavirus growth risks) will be supportive NZD.

Technically the picture is looking overstretched to the downside, strong support is located at 0.634x while to the topside resistance is at 0.665x and 0.679x above. Strong support 0.634x <=> Soft Support 0.642x <=> Mid Point 0.650x <=> Soft Resistance 0.665x <=> Strong Resistance 0.679x.

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