NZDUSD - Kiwi oversold, ready for rebound

2020-02-10 15:40:45

Global growth outlook concerns continue to be the topic of discussion at the RBNZ as to the level of impact on NZ exports despite positive underlying fundamentals.

Our view
- Solid underlying fundamentals including, GDP/Inflation ticking higher, exports steadily increasing over the financial year and trade balance surplus
- Households remain optimistic as housing market activity picks up
- Business confidence is recovering as the government signals commitments on infrastructure investment
- Hedge funds remain reasonably flat in the futures market indicating funds are yet to pour into the upside trade
- Macro swing targets of 0.74xx into VPOC and 0.80xx with reversal occurring on buyside liquidity into 0.62xx
- Technical indicators suggesting oversold momentum conditions

We begin loading buyside exposure into the 0.62xx zone across both our macro and directional portfolios

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Until next time,

Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management