NZDUSD - Kiwi oversold, ready for rebound

Global growth outlook concerns continue to be the topic of discussion at the RBNZ as to the level of impact on NZ exports despite positive underlying fundamentals.

Our view
- Solid underlying fundamentals including, GDP/Inflation ticking higher, exports steadily increasing over the financial year and trade balance surplus
- Households remain optimistic as housing market activity picks up
- Business confidence is recovering as the government signals commitments on infrastructure investment
- Hedge funds remain reasonably flat in the futures market indicating funds are yet to pour into the upside trade
- Macro swing targets of 0.74xx into VPOC and 0.80xx with reversal occurring on buyside liquidity into 0.62xx
- Technical indicators suggesting oversold momentum conditions

We begin loading buyside exposure into the 0.62xx zone across both our macro and directional portfolios

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Until next time,

Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management