ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03

After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking:

On the Macro side:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/SehzOb4s-ridethepig-EURUSD-2020-Macro-Map-Flow-Breakdown/


For the Long-Term Technical diagram:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/pWK4NnhD-Birds-eye-view-long-term-EURUSD-map/

For the Mid-Term Technical diagram:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/A1QV0fk7-Chart-of-the-Week-EURUSD-Weekly-ridethepig/

The DXY Monthly chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/APZDYwNR-Dollar-Focus/

The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x.

Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!