Portier |USDMYR Macro Outlook, Analysis & Market Commentary

2020-01-23 14:53:25

Traders & Investors!

We are now looking at potential opportunities across MYR crosses following the unexpected BNM easing yesterday when key rates were cut 0.25% in response to slowing domestic growth, trade uncertainty and continued geopolitical risks

Our view
- Markets to re price 0.25% rate cut, finding buyside liquidity on RM4.05xx floor
- Downside risks will remain in our view with domestic growth slowing, uncertainty from various trade negotiations, geopolitical risks, weaker-than-expected growth of major trade partners, heightened volatility in financial markets, domestic factors which include weakness in commodity-related sectors and delays in the implementation of projects to fuel a selloff in MYR.
- We see technical value in averaging into this trade from here down to the RM4.00xx buyside floor before any meaningful impulsive unwind in the MYR.

We have added buyside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios in response to the recent BNM rate cut however remain aware of value lower closer to the RM4.00 buyside floor.

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Until next time,

Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management