Bulls and Bears showdown at 1.29050?

Disclaimer:
I don't post a lot of charts (this is my 2nd idea).
I'm also hopeless at forecasting so please don't take this idea too seriously.
Also, I'm not an Elliott wave expert - just like the way it looks. :D

Thesis:
the 1.29050 level looks to me like a line in the sand.
Bulls have to protect this level to avoid the psychological effect
of price breaking back into the 1.28000 to 1.28999 range.
The importance of such a break is something that I have expressed
as an extended Elliott 5th wave going all the way down to 1.23750.

Invalidation:
a close above 1.312 invalidates the Elliott count and thus the thesis.

Risk:
I'm short from 1.311X with about 2% of my account.
Good luck and safe trading!