NZD/USD – LONG (BUY)

Just thought I would share one of my Sunday afternoon analysis for the week ahead. I will attempt to add most of the indicators I use to analyze my trade ideas. You can use this to create your own trading analysis scorecard to determine whether you will enter a trade or not, not every currency pair that you analyze will end up in a trade. Analysis is the majority of your trading work and not pressing the buy or sell button.. So let us go ahead and analyse the NZD/USD currency pair for a possible buy option.

The Weekly trend is Bearish
The Daily trend is Bullish
The H4 trend is Bullish
We are going against the general weekly trend due to the weekly resistance line being clearly broken and now serving as the new weekly support line.

Institutional Order Flow Areas ( aka Supply & Demand ):
The H4/Daily (gray area on chart) have being broken and changed from support to the new resistance which had been tested 4 times and is becoming a strong and new support area .
The Daily Resistance Area (red area on chart) is our main target with 3 take profit on the road towards the main target, there TP points is also support/resistance areas and therefore our TP points.

Parabolic SAR
We had a Highest Low on the H1 chart as indicated by the Parabolic SAR and therefore giving us a possible entry area for a Long Trade on the H4 and Daily Chart (see the chart for the small orange dot which identifies the Parabolic SAR )

Currency Strength Indication:
Monthly:
The USD is weaker than the NZD - MEDIUM WEAKNESS
Weekly:
The USD is stronger than the NZD - MEDIUM TO HIGH STRENGH
The currency strength indication is IN LINE with this trading idea on the monthly indication but not the weekly indication.

Fundamental Consideration:
a WEAKER Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) is expected for the NZD
a STRONGER Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected for the USD
Both of above financial announcements could have a negative impact on this trade idea.

Retail FX Community Outlook:
Retail Community Outlook is a statistical analysis on what the market perception is under Retail Traders like you and me, this does not include Banks and big Corporate Financial Institutions. With 70 to 90% of retail traders losing on all their trades we want to be opposite the overall retail traders view

The Retail Community Outlook for this trade is as follows:
74% SHORT
26% LONG
This trade is LONG – we go AGAINST majority of retail traders, which is IN LINE with this trade idea.

Entry:
As indicated on chart, find you best entry point on the H1 and M30 chart. Consider making use of the Linear Regression Channel to find the best entry point.

Take Profit:
As indicated on chart

Stop Loss:
As indicated on chart


Trade Analysis Score:
Now that we have done a full analysis let us go and score our trade idea, you can go and create your own scoring system, here are some aspects you can use in your scorecard:
TD – Trade Direction
MN – Monthly Direction
W1 – Weekly Direction
D1 – Daily Direction
H4 – 4 Hourly Direction
H1 – Hourly Direction
COT C1 – COT Long/Short positions for Currency 1
COT C2 – COT Long/Short positions for Currency 2
CSI – Currency Strength Indication for Currency 1 vs. Currency 2
FC 1 – Fundamental Consideration for Currency 1
FC 2 – Fundamental Consideration for Currency 2
RCO – Retail Community Outlook
MA – Moving Average

With our score card this trade analysis score a very low 57%, your score percentage can give you a good idea on how much you want to risk on this trade or if you even want to take the trade at all. Anyone can press the buy or sell button, rather keep on improving you trade analysis.

Good Luck – Trade Responsible
Use 1% risk per Position!
Always strive to continuously improve your trading strategy and knowledge