Trade EUR/JPY Minor Trend And Hedge Major Trend

2020-01-16 16:23:33

Ascending wedge signifies EURJPY minor trend so far, (refer daily plotting). 

Major trend slides in the sloping channel (refer weekly chart), the channel breakout and the sustenance seem to be dubious as the failure swings have clearly been observed at the channel and the wedge resistances from the last 4-5 months. 

Occurrences of Shooting star & bearish engulfing pattern candles at both wedge and channel resistance (to be precise, at 121.568 and at 120.657 levels respectively) resume may resume major downtrend at any time. 

Although 21-DMAs with bullish crossover with 7-DMA provides some sort of cushion but struggling with overbought momentum as both leading oscillators halted in overbought territory.

The bullish sentiments or abrupt rallies in the minor trend would prolong but seems momentary and unlikely to reverse the major downtrend. You could observe the upswings from the last 3-4 months have shown exhaustiveness at the channel resistance. 

Hence, on trading perspective, at spot reference: 122.747 levels, contemplating above technical rationale it is advisable to trade one-touch calls to participate in prevailing rallies, using upper strikes at 123.150 levels.

Alternatively, ahead of ECB and BoJ monetary policies, we advocated shorts in EURJPY futures contracts of far-month tenors with a view to arresting potential dips, since further price dips are foreseen we would like to uphold the same strategy.