ridethepig | Looking at AUDNZD from 40,000ft

On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut.

On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. Although into year-end NZD also spiking higher but rather than from good data it was with a positional squeeze into 0.66xx before running out of steam. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD but AUD has more room to outperform if data holds:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDNZD/eWVfbQQh-ridethepig-AUDNZD-Market-Commentary-2019-11-29/

A “Royal Flush” for us and the Commodity Currencies. As widely mentioned yesterday, stronger AUD employment data sending AUDUSD flying towards the 0.69xx handle:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/l3RPD0tT-ridethepig-AUD-Market-Commentary-2019-12-17/

I am looking to close longs at 0.695x which is still the same level in play from the larger swing into year-end:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/OVXrQyya-ridethepig-AUD-Market-Commentary-2019-11-15/

For those holding since October when we loaded the breakup we will have to wait till 2020 to clear final targets:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/ZsAE1mL9-The-perfect-timing-for-this-one/

For the AUD macro map:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/SnjNR1LX-AUDUSD-Macro-Chart-ridethepig/


For the NZD macro map:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/vw03AEHb-ridethepig-NZD-2020-Macro-Map/

As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts. If we get enough interest we will have a round of Fixed Income chart updates coming for AU and NZ.