AUDNZD:Three Reasons Why Such A Bear Trend May Continue:

Three reasons why such a bear trend may continue:
1.Monetary policy divergence
2.Commodity outlook
3.Speculative positioning

We believe that the fall in AUD/NZD is not overdone and we continue to see the balance of risk for the pair tilted to the downside. Regardless of the direction of trade-related risk sentiment, the less and less dovish stance of the RBNZ keeps denting the AUD-NZD rate differential, and the commodity outlook appears more positive for New Zealand than Australia. When adding NZD extreme short positioning compared to AUD, we think AUD/NZD can break below the 1.04 level in the near future and soon approach the 1.0350 area............

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